High Level Project Plan

Phase 1: Induction Phase

Development of PSC and PMC

A Project Steering Committee (PSC), comprised of at least one senior-level member from each partner organization and chaired by the Under Secretary of the Ministry of Forests and Soil Conservation will be meet bi-annually, proving guidance to the project. Other USAID programs (PAANI, Hariyo Ban, SERVIR) will be invited to observe these meetings and seek ways to integrate JaibikMap to leverage USAID funding. The Project Management Committee (PMC) of at least one member from each partner organization will meet monthly, oversee day-to-day project operations, and regularly report as per USAID guidelines. A Project Implementation Unit will be coordinated by IUCN PI, with one specialists guiding Junior Researchers. A National Data Review and Assessment/Inception Workshop will be organized. During this phase the PMC’s will draft a work plan (giving output deadlines), followed by formal MOUs.

Phase 2: Data acquisition, analysis and mapping

Mammalian Species Data

Compiled data will include data on mammal species description, occurrences, distribution, status, habitat requirements and main threats. Institutional members will be solicited to submit existing and emerging occurrence data after receiving information sheets on mammal species. As all 208 mammalian species were included in the IUCN national-level “2011 Mammal Red-List Species Assessment”, raw data housed at the Department of National Parks and Wildlife Conservation (DNPWC) will be translated into the GIS platform. All gaps in mammalian data will be identified and will become a priority for DNPWC.

Land use / Habitat Data

Compiled data will include current land use (e.g. forest, plains, wetlands, agricultural land, major settlements and roads). This information will be formally requested by DNPWC from a variety of Government of Nepal (GoN) Departments (e.g. Department of Forests, Department of Forest Research and Survey, Department of Statistics). The most complete national land cover database of Nepal prepared using public domain Landsat TM data of 2010 and replicable methodology will be accessed and incorporated from the USAID-funded SERVIR Himalaya project, along with the project’s maps for Protected Areas and Population Density.

Meteorological Data

Gathered from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) from the 282 meteorological stations established in Nepal, historical (from the past 70 years) and contemporary meteorological data will be purchased, compiled, cleaned and translated into the JaibikMap system. This data will also feed into the climate change modelling described below.

Phase 3: Analysis through modelling

National-level Forest Climate Change Modelling Methodology

  1. Holdridge (1967) Life Zone (HLZ) Analysis provides a basis for defining local ecosystems in a globally comparable framework, building a useful. Using climate data gathered from DHM (precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration), analysis will be conducted on the basis of existing and projected climate conditions using different climate change models (CCCM and DGF3) (Jha, 2006) in order to determine likely changes in vegetation patterns due to shifting “life zones”.
  2. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is a simple graphical indicator that can be used to analyse remote sensing measurement to assess whether targeted satellite imagery of Nepal contains live green vegetation or not. Mainali et al (2015) have observed that both precipitation and temperature affect NDVI values in specific conservation areas of Nepal. NDVI data from 2000-2010 will be collected using multi- temporal Terra MODIS Vegetation Indices Product (MOD13Q1) and digitally encoded in GIS along with meteorological data gathered from DHM for the past 70 years.

Mammalian species distribution modelling

The species distribution modelling will focus on key mammal species which are most vulnerable to habitat loss due to climate change as well as endemic plant species previously studied by Co-PI Dr. Jha. Working on each species individually, the climate (HLZ) and multi-temporal remote-sensing (NDVI) will be used to create a mechanistic habitat assessment model which incorporates climatic features and biotic features to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the species spatial distribution.

Phase 4: Model verification and validation

  1. To verify the validity of the National Level Forest Change Analysis, three forest types that have narrow range distributions (TISC 2002) in Eastern, Central, and Western Nepal, the combined HLZ and NDVI model will be cast with predictions of the impacts of forest change on forest cover. Field assessments will be conducted, during which time the three studied narrow-range forest types will be visited and analysed based on the field reality and tree ring analysis in order to reconcile accuracy of climate change information and verify the model’s accuracy.
  2. In these forest-field sites, citizen scientists’ observations will be consulted to gather accounts of shifts in occurrence of key endemic species as well as mammalian species observed over the past 10 years. The study population will be community forest user groups’ (CFUG) members. CFUGs in Nepal are required to have equal representation of women, and representation of dalit or other marginalized groups.
  3. To better understand data-deficient phenological trends, a secondary field analysis will be conducted in the Himalayan region which can be compared with past records.
  4. Reconciling all gathered information, the models will be finalized and information will be translated into GIS and other forms required for the map system.

Co-PI Dr. PK Jha will compare his current USAID-funded research on the impacts of climate change on vegetation patterns in the Chitwan Annapurna Landscape with the National Level Forest Change Analysis. As little is currently known about the impacts of climate change on biodiversity in this area (which is covered by the USAID-funded Hariyo-ban project), insights may be gained through this comparison.

Phase 5: Tool (JaibikMap) development

Requirement analysis and system architecture

Prior to data importation, a systematic review will be held by KLL to analyse what has been collected in order to identify required system and website components. Next, web programmers will develop the system architecture, including the system blueprint. The overall Open-street map base layer will be designed and amended as necessary, including all land-use and forest data overlays. The map design will then be reviewed by the PMC and amended as needed. Finally, the system administration will be developed, including data storage and integration of a mechanism for updating, system control, and backup.

System Construction

Finally, the web-based JaibikMap will be coded, including key interactive interface elements, such as

  • Searchable species habitat/range
  • Slippy/zooming
  • Links with relevant materials from other online sources
  • Several layers (forest cover, land use, mammal range, etc.)
  • Downloadable data

Next, the Android Phone App will be developed, through which citizen scientists can upload pictures taken during opportunistic sightings of mammalian species. This information will feed back to a database which can be accessed by specific users (as to avoid the danger of informing poachers of mammal occurrence). Pictures can be viewed on the web-based platform linked with general information about the mammals.